Hong Kong has suspended the planned launch of legal basketball betting, which had been scheduled for September — and the government is pointing directly at the rise of crypto-based prediction markets as the reason for the delay. The decision marks a sharp U-turn for a jurisdiction that only recently passed legislation to legalise basketball wagering as a means of curbing a black market estimated to have generated HK$34 billion ($4.3 billion) in turnover in 2023 alone.
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What changed
The rapid growth of prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket has ignited a broader regulatory debate about whether event contracts constitute illegal betting. Hong Kong Secretary for Home and Youth Affairs Alice Mak defended the pause, framing it as a responsible exercise of government judgment rather than a failure to follow through on legislation.
“If we were to blindly issue a licence simply because a bill was passed last year while disregarding other external factors, that would be irresponsible,” she said. The Hong Kong government also noted that prediction market trading volume soared in 2025, peaking at $64 billion — up 200% year-on-year — as justification for a more in-depth study of these emerging platforms before proceeding.
The Beijing factor
The timing and framing of the decision has prompted speculation in local media about a less stated motivation. Hong Kong, like Macau, is a Chinese special administrative region operating under close oversight from Beijing, which has taken an increasingly hard line on gambling under President Xi Jinping — linking cross-border gambling activity to money laundering and other criminal concerns.
Reports from the South China Morning Post quoted a club insider from the Hong Kong Jockey Club — the proposed operator of the basketball betting scheme — who questioned why the prediction market issue had not been foreseen earlier, and hinted that the decision may have been driven by factors beyond the government’s immediate control.
No timeline for what comes next
Members of the Hong Kong Jockey Club were reportedly not informed of the suspension until Monday night, despite club management having prior knowledge of the delay. Legislative Council member Adrian Pedro Ho expressed support for the pause, describing it as a prudent response to rapidly evolving technology. “There is no reason to introduce something new that could encourage and fuel illegal gambling activities,” he said.
No announcement has been made regarding when — or whether — the legal basketball betting framework will ultimately be launched.
