The 2026 FIFA World Cup is shaping up to be the largest gambling event in American history. According to a new forecast from Bookies.com, US bettors alone are expected to wager approximately $3.1 billion in legal online sports bets on the tournament — a figure that would surpass Super Bowl betting totals and mark a defining moment for the US sports wagering industry.
The tournament kicks off on June 11 across 16 host cities in the United States, Canada and Mexico. On top of the $3.1 billion projected for traditional sportsbooks, prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are expected to generate an additional $2.4 billion in World Cup wagering — bringing the combined total to an extraordinary $5.5 billion and demonstrating just how far betting activity has spread beyond conventional channels.
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The numbers behind the surge
The scale of expected World Cup betting reflects a dramatic shift in the US gambling landscape over just four years. Americans legally wagered approximately $1.8 billion on the 2022 World Cup in Qatar — itself nearly on par with Super Bowl betting at the time. The projected jump to $3.1 billion in legal sportsbook bets alone represents growth of more than 70% in a single tournament cycle.
A PwC survey of more than 2,000 US adults conducted in April found that 58% of Americans plan to place a wager on the tournament — through sportsbooks, prediction markets, fantasy contests or informal bets with friends and family. Of those bettors, approximately one in three expects to wager at least $250.
What is driving the growth
Analysts point to three primary drivers. The expansion of legalised mobile sports betting across more US states has dramatically widened the pool of accessible bettors. The tournament’s expanded 48-team format — up from 32 in 2022, creating 104 total matches — gives bettors significantly more events to wager on throughout the competition. And rising mainstream interest in soccer among American fans has transformed the sport into a genuine major betting category for the first time.
Prediction markets are adding a new dimension to the mix. “Prediction markets have been around for a long time, but they didn’t start taking sports trades until last year,” said Bill Speros, sports betting analyst for Bookies.com. “So you’re going to see Kalshi and Polymarket probably do a significant number on this.”
The odds and the favourites
France and Spain lead the outright winner markets at odds of around +450 to +500 on DraftKings. England (+650) and Brazil (+800) follow closely, with reigning champion Argentina (+900) rounding out the top tier of contenders.
Team USA is considered a long shot to win the tournament at +6,000 to +8,000 — roughly a 1% implied probability. But sportsbooks expect the US to perform well in the early rounds. They are favoured to win their group at +130 and strongly expected to advance to the knockout stage at -575, facing Turkey (+1,000), Paraguay (+1,000) and Australia (+60,000) in the group stage.
What this means for players
The scale of World Cup betting activity makes platform choice more important than ever. With billions of dollars flowing through sportsbooks and prediction markets over the course of the tournament, the difference between placing bets on trusted online casinos and licensed sportsbooks versus unregulated alternatives has real financial consequences. Trusted online casinos and licensed betting platforms offer verified odds, secure payment processing, clear terms and genuine recourse if something goes wrong — protections that become especially valuable when the stakes and the volumes are this high. As the World Cup approaches, taking a moment to ensure your chosen platform is properly licensed and regulated is the single most important step any bettor can take before placing their first wager.
